The three-week “Stay at Home” order that was triggered for the Bay Area on December 18 after ICU capacity for the region fell below 15% was originally supposed to be revisited starting January 8th, but there has been no official word from the State of California.

A region is supposed to be able to exit the stay at home order when a 4-week projection is above or equal to 15%. To our knowledge, the state has not shared any of these projections, or exact methodology as to how these projections are made.

The city of San Francisco proactively extended their order “indefinitely” on December 31st, but we’re not aware of any other county making any official statement on the original deadline of January 8th.

Number of ICU Beds Currently “Available” in Bay Area
as of 1/6/21 – see data source

• Bay Area Total – 267 (lowest number since at least March)
• Alameda – 69
• Contra Costa – 27
• Marin – 14
• Monterey – 33
• Napa – 3
• San Francisco – 46
• San Mateo – 12
• Santa Clara – 27
• Santa Cruz – 4
• Solano – 8
• Sonoma – 24

Why a Drop in Available ICU Beds Doesn’t Always Mean More Hospitalizations
In general, it’s safe to assume that a drop in available ICU beds correlates with more more ICU beds being occupied, but not always. Please note that maximum number of potential ICU beds on a per region or county basis is not shared by the state of California and that potential ICU bed numbers can change depending on staffing and the ability to convert “normal” beds into ICU beds which is a common practice when overflow is needed. So without the state providing more detailed statistics and data on what it considers an “available” bed to be, in some cases it’s unclear if a drop in the number ICU beds available is the result of more hospitalizations, temporary ICU beds being converted back into regular beds and taken “offline,” or a combination of both.

In addition the Bay Area has 375 potential hospital beds not included in the above numbers that are considered “warm” and ready to be activated quickly in case of an emergency surge (125 in San Francisco in The Presidio and 250 in Richmond at the Craneway Pavilion)

When is a Regional “Stay at Home” Order Supposed to End?
Here’s what the state of California says

Delivery of shiny new “Fleet of the Future” trains on hold for at least 12 weeks while BART works out software & wheel issues.

Thanks to the Mercury News for letting us know that BART has paused their delivery of new “Fleet of the Future” trains due to software glitches and reliability issues putting it’s $2.6 billion effort to swap out a decades-old fleet of trains on hold.

Thanks to glitches in the on-board automatic train control system, the “new” cars routinely stop while in service and can’t move again until the train operator reboots the systems. This results in a 5-10 minute delay.

As of January 8, 2021, BART is expected to have 290 “Fleet of the Future” trains in service and 618 “legacy” cars.

Additionally, in wet weather the train’s wheels can develop “flat” spots when stopping, so the cars need to be removed from service so that the wheels can be resurfaced.

The pause in delivery of new trains will begin on January 8 and is expected to last at least 12 weeks.

This doesn’t appear to have any impact on the number of trains in service, only that older “legacy” cars will be decommissioned at a slower rate.

BART will temporarily stop accepting new cars

Read more at BART

BART will temporarily stop accepting delivery of new Fleet of the Future (FOTF) rail cars beginning January 8, 2021 to allow the manufacturer, Bombardier Transportation, the time to take steps to improve the cars’ reliability and availability, and to alleviate rail car storage constraints at BART’s maintenance yards.

One of the issues to be resolved is related to software in the on-board automatic train control system. The new cars routinely stop while in service and will not move until after the Train Operator reboots the system, resulting in a five-to-ten-minute delay.

In addition, when trains are stopping under wet or rainy conditions, the cars’ wheels can develop flat spots. When this occurs, the cars need to be removed from service so that the wheels can be resurfaced.

While neither issue impacts the safety of existing FOTF cars currently in service, they can impact service reliability and car availability.

BART is expected to have 290 FOTF cars by January 8th and, combined with 618 legacy cars, BART will be required to retire legacy cars to create room for additional FOTF cars. Given the pause in delivery of new

Yes, COVID sucks and most everything is shut down or gone virtual. But there are still a few socially-distant things you can do on Christmas Eve and Christmas.

If you choose to go out, just make sure to mask up, stay socially distant and don’t mix with other groups outside your household.

Christmas Eve Farmers Market + Free Hot Apple Cider

Thursday, December 24, 2020 – 10:00 am to 2:00 pm
Ferry Building | The Embarcadero and Ferry Plaza, San Francisco

Satisfy your last-minute holiday needs and warm up with some free hot apple cider Thursday, December 24. You’ll find our regular Thursday farms along with pop-ups like Hog Island Oyster Co., Delightful Foods (pie), Root Down Farm (pastured meat), and more to make for a unique, delicious, and truly local feast.

Christmas Eve w/ 1950s-Style Carhop Service at Mel’s Drive-In

Thursday, December 24, 2020
Mel’s Drive In (Lombard + Geary)

Outdoor dining might be officially banned, but Mel’s carhop service is technically “delivery” since they bring it to your car so they are allowed to be open. It’s a fun date night as long as you don’t mind your car smelling like patty melts and milkshakes. Mel’s first opened on December 23, 1947 in San Francisco so this week is their 73rd anniversary.

SF’s Xmas Eve Holiday Pop-Up COVID Test Site in The Mission

Thursday, December 24, 2020 – 7:30 am to 4:00 pm | Cost: FREE
24th Street BART | 24th Street and Mission, San Francisco, CA

OK, this isn’t “fun” by any stretch. But it is cheap. This free and no appointment necessary testing site has popped up to serve the Latinx community for just two days (December 23-24). This isn’t meant for if you are being frivolous and are traveling or gathering with friends and want to make sure you’re ok. This is for essential workers, the Mission community and if you’re experience symptoms or recently had exposure.

See a Drive-In Movie on Xmas Eve or Christmas Night

December 24-25 starting at 5:30p
Tickets $8.50 for adults / $2 kids

Yes, the Bay’s two drive-in movie theaters – one in Concord and one in San Jose – are still open and showing movies nightly. San Jose is larger and has more screens and is showing a bunch of xmas movies on xmas eve. On Christmas night it’s normal films including Wonder Woman 1984 at both